The Pied Piper of Hamlet plays his merry flute. The rats love his songs and soon they are following him, winding their way through town. The rats believe the songs are the truth but they are the songs that lead the rats away from home.

Today’s Pied Piper is the media, singing the songs of foreclosure, of recession and of an upcoming Presidential election. We follow the Pied Piper and we are lead away from home. We quit buying property.

The song is true, there are many people in foreclosure, but the song is incomplete. Most people are not losing their homes. Here in Incline Village, the foreclosure rate is even smaller than the rest of the nation. We are just hearing one note of the song but we think we are hearing the whole song. We look for bargains in the real estate market and, when we can’t find them, we do nothing.

The song of the recession has been played early. A recession is six consecutive months of negative economic growth. At most, December 2007 would be our first month of negative growth; we have a long way to go before we hear all the notes of the recession song. But we play along with the song by not buying, and contributing to the down turn.

Presidential election years are predictable. Like the tune Happy Birthday to You that comes every year, Presidential elections come every four years yet we are surprised by the song the Piper is playing, as if we have never heard it before. The song makes us wait, it makes us feel uncertain about the future. If we knew who was going to win, we would buy, it is the not knowing that keeps us from moving forward.

It is time to stop listening to the Pied Piper. It is time to listen to the song of reason, the song of actual market statistics. According to the National Association of Realtors, 2007 was the fifth best year in real estate history nationwide. According to the local multiple listing service, the median sold price for a single-family home in Incline Village/Crystal Bay jumped from $1,180,000 in 2006 to $1,295,000 in 2007. As of this writing, there are 369 single-family homes, condominiums and freestanding units on the market in the Incline Village/Crystal Bay area. The selection is tremendous which means that supply and demand has made prices reasonable. The Feds have cut the interest rates making loans are more affordable. If you listen to the song of reason, you have a reason to buy, a reason to come home.

Shahri

They often predict these grandfather storms and we end up with a fizzle, little to no snow as the storm dies or changes course. This one, although later than expected, has turned out to be glorious. Winds and blowing snow, closed roads and offices, even ski areas closing – a true blizzard. With about four new feet in my driveway and many more than that in the upper elevations, we are in for a perfect ski season and the long term benefit of extra water plus a rise in the level of Lake Tahoe.

There is nothing like a Lake Tahoe snowstorm to bring out the shoppers. You would think we were planning to stock up for the new ice age. Here in Incline Village, Raley’s and Village Market run out of essentials. I hear from my Reno pals that the lines there were double and triple any normal day. Is this not the Costco generation? Do these people not have enough in their pantry or the back of their garage to make it for a few weeks or even a few months? Why is it then that as soon as the snow hits, fear of starvation drives us to the grocery store? “It’s for fresh food” the shoppers say. They buy ten days worth of vegetables, most of which will rot in their refrigerator, and they buy several gallons of milk. They also buy toilet paper, a critical purchase for anyone snow bound.

After nearly forty years at Lake Tahoe I do not rush to the store. I do not even venture out. I sit snuggled in my home. I call friends from far away and let them know it is not as bad as it sounds on TV. I read. I play on my computer. I listen to my husband snow blow the driveway. I turn on the outside lights in the evening and watch the storm.

I love winter. Looking out my window now is like looking at a postcard. The trees are white, the sky is blue and everything looks clean and perfect. Soon the plows will come and the magic will turn to work as the need to get outside is bigger than the joy of watching. Skis, snowboards or snow shoes will come out and windshields will be scraped. But going to the store? Not now, not until they stock up again. I live at Lake Tahoe to play in the weather, not to shop.

Shahri

We received over eighteen inches of snow today! Some of the ski resorts have already opened and others are due to open before Christmas. This is a great time to come to Tahoe, enjoy the snow, and see how the homes look covered in a blanket of white.

Shahri

Christmas, even if you don't celebrate it, is a hectic time for most people. In addition to our normally busy lives we add extra parties, gift giving and receiving, special cooking and baking, family events, crowds, media overload, decorating our homes, and the potential of weather putting a wrinkle in everything we do. The days are short and often our tempers are, too. You may not want to add one more thing to your plate but this is traditionally a great time to buy a house. If you were planning to wait until spring, take some time now to see if there is something that fits your needs. There is a greater selection in the spring but the prices are often greater, too. Sellers who are willing to have their homes on the market during the holiday season are more motivated. They are often priced aggressively and many of them are in a giving mood, willing to make concessions that they would not make any other time of year. If buying a home is in your plans for the near future, spend some time this month looking at the options. See the homes available today, dressed in their holiday finery, and you may find just the perfect present, a home for the holidays and for years to come!

Shahri

As we head full force into the holiday season, we reflect on the past year and look forward to what we can expect in the year to come. Although the national media has been spouting gloom and doom for real estate, there are many areas of the country where the gloom and doom is fading. Incline Village is among them.

For those who are looking to buy, now is the time. The number of sales for all categories of properties remains virtually unchanged from last year to this year but with the increased inventory, the selection is greater and the prices more stable.

As of today there has been a 50% increase in the number of sales over $5,000,000, comparing 2006 figures to date to the figures for 2007. This shows that moneyed investors are not afraid of the media’s cry. It has also increased the average and median sales price, making it appear that prices have increased dramatically, which is a bit misleading. Having some dramatically high end properties sell can skew the statistics for the reasonable price ranges. So far this year there were 134 properties (in all categories) that sold for under $1,000,000 and there are 232 properties for sale now. The selection is great, keeping prices reasonable and creating good opportunities to invest.

Shahri